Godzilla in the Social Networking Paddling Pool. What are Google's Plans for Profiles?

It has been so casually done and so low key one might suspect they have no serious plans for profiles. It has been over a year since Google introduced profiles & yet they have not really even begun to leverage them into Search, Gmail and other properties.  When they do begin Mark Zuckerberg might have to go and lie down for a while.

It has all seemed like such an innocuous move – but to me it is reminiscent of nothing less than a poker player calling rather than raising the pot when sitting with a pair of aces in the hole. This is huge and Google knows it, it feels like they are simply biding their time connecting the dots and then will take all the social media chips.

Google Profiles

A quick run through the feature list:

  1. Receive messages.
  2. Add photos. Enhance your profile by embedding photos from Flickr or Picasa.
  3. Create a page about you. Write a short bio…
  4. Add your contact information.
  5. Add links to your other profiles and sites.
  6. Show your location.

So basically Facebook without the status updates but including location based services, a link to Google Reader shares, integrating easily with a powerful email client (Gmail).  Ok that rocks. Google has opted to start simply but they will expand. 

My Profile

The Implications

What if, with permission, Google starts featuring profiles in search?

Imagine you are searching (using google naturally) for information on Pomeranian dogs and in your search at the bottom of the page appear profiles of 3 people who are also interested in bizarre experiments in natural selection Pomeranian dogs.  Voila instant social network and one which will grow organically out of our daily tasks.  This is incredibly powerful.

Never mind the fact that it integrates with all the other Google services I’m already using.  It seems obvious that Google should just be able to own this space should they want to but Google’s very ubiquity is part of the problem.

Why it Might Not Work

Google has become so large and all encompassing my Google profile feels lost in the ocean of information and activity that is Google. In contrast within Facebook I am held, the walled garden for all its limitations also creates a sense of security and managability.  When on Facebook and interacting with it I am in a certain mode a relatively relaxed lighthearted friendly interaction space – for example I use Facebook’s messaging tool in a very different way to the way in which I use email.

With my Google profile I am not sure if it connects to my friends or if they will indeed see it. When filling it in I hesitated over some personal information which I do not hesitate to share on Facebook or Twitter. 

Why Twitter Matters to Google

Twitter could provide the sense of place which feels so lacking in its profiles and indeed all of Google’s social media efforts.  Twitter has a sense of place of being contained as does Facebook but Twitter’s is far more open and inclusive. If Google bought Twitter and somehow integrated Google Profiles with a Twitter profiles and then integrated it all with search it would be an incredibly powerful way of connecting people and ideas.

The possibility of it happeneing is both exciting and deeply concerning. Exciting because it would take finding like-minded people and tracking memes to another level entirely, deeply concerning because it would further centralise more of my information with Google when I already feel like I have too much there.

URLS no more

I was helping my friend Ish with his FireFox on Sunday. Ish is a novice Internet user and he wanted to show me the website for a beautiful hotel he had discovered for his next India tour. I noticed he did not bookmark or record the URL of the website he wanted to show me – he just went to Google and searched for it again. Ish doesn’t bookmark or write down any addresses, he remembers the way he searched for them and then repeats it.

Then today I see via Cabel Sasser that in Japan the advertising does not include URLs but rather search boxes with recommended terms. This is a trend that bears watching as more and more new users get online.

A Graffiti Conversation

A wall at a school got some graffiti spraypainetd upon it

dontwalkawayinsilence

After which someone posted a note:

internetaffectslife

Then a further note to update everyone on what happened

wallmessage2

Can you imagine this kind of conversation happening before the days of the Internet? It seem that there is now a feedback loop, the ease of response and communication online have so accustomed us to engaging that we do it everywhere online and off.

Internet Classifieds Take Off in South Africa

In the last 5 years free Internet classifieds have been inflicting grievous bodily harm on the classified advert revenues of newspapers – traditionally one of their most profitable income streams. Craigslist an online classified site started as a mailing list by a San Francisco guy called – Craig is credited with singlehandedly wiping $326 million off the value of traditional print advertising in 2006 – it was probably even higher last year.

Classifieds benefit from network effects, where the most buyers are is where the most advertisers go and where the most products are advertised is where the most buyers go and…you get the picture. This means it quickly becomes a winner take all game (actually according to power laws more like a winner take 80% game). Quick what is the number one auction site in the world? eBay right? And number 2? Ja…exactly.

While Craigslist never took off in South Africa, The Gumtree is currently kicking ass and taking names. Have a look at the following…

Junkmail is the only site which makes a blip on the radar apart from The Gumtree and the paper has been around for years. Thing is Junkmail has a chance to compete with the Gumtree but they need to GO FREE
ONLINE NOW. That’s right they currently charge to see the contact details on the website. BZZZZZTTTT not gonna work – people expect things for free on the net especially when they can just go to The Gumtree. If you don’t believe me read Chris Anderson’s essay, Free! Why $0.00 is the Future of Business

If Junkmail does not go free online they are toast and in 3-5 years their paper will not exist. Thing is they could easily do so as they make a TON of money, they still sell many copies and charge for bold adverts so if they could get an injection of reality and vision and are willing to spend some of that cash they might have a chance. Hey Junkmail! Call me.

Gumtree.com was started in London in 2000 (the same year I moved there I was using it regularly by 2002) as a community site designed to connect people who were either planning to move, or had just arrived in the city, and needed help getting started with accommodation, work, and social opportunities.It was initially targeted at Australians, New Zealanders and South Africans. And here’s the bad news for its
competitors…remember that number one auction site – a little company called eBay? Well they own the Gumtree, they bought it in 2005.

As for Vottle South Africa’s homebrew answer to The Gumtree – it really is nothing more than a Gumtree clone. The guys behind it are some of my ex-colleagues at Internet Solutions and I would like to wish
them well but really Ronnie, Colin. What were you thinking? Coming second to market with a me-too product when there is also an established offline competitor in Junkmail?! You are going to need to do a lot more than a few bus shelter and dustbin adverts around Rosebank to have a hope in hell of competing.

If anyone from Junkmail or Vottle is reading this and has not permanently crossed me off the Christmas card list – its not quite too late yet! The key is to not keep competing on the same footing, you have to change the terms of engagement. I have a strategy which could give you a chance against the Gumtree and a strong likelihood of carving out a niche or two…my number is 072 632 0511.

Setting Boundaries – Success Based Fees

Sometimes it is possible to really love a client and their business and earn reasonable fees but find it just not working out on a commercial basis because your energy investment is too high and it is preventing you
from finding the right range of work.

I do some of my work on a success based fee. Lately some interesting customers with great potential have come along who cannot afford my rates or who want more of my attention than they can afford. So I have agreed to payments based on success. The tricky thing is how to define success & what to charge for it so it works out for you?

In the case I allude to above the success was defined simply yet very broadly – increased turnover. This we have managed with the turnover increasing between 50% and 90% for the last 2 months after 1 months settling in. I have 2 problems though…

  1. I offer a range of services (development, marketing, training) and they all result in an increase in turnover – therefore my client is excitedly asking for everything at once and because he is paying me
    there is an expectation that I will deliver as I do for all my clients. Clients are demanding – that is their nature – it is up to the service provider to set clear boundaries about what work is going to be done
    for the fee. This should be the case even when the fee is success based.
  2. I did not set up front a time limit on the hours I would spend on this client’s business (it was envisaged as being flexible depending on how business grew & how busy I was).
  3. There is no recognition of the risk I took. In this project there was no risk for the client if turnover never increased he would shrug and carry on doing what he did before simply having learned some new skills. I had a large risk however – that the work I did would not be paid…You need to earn a decent % (I suggest 50%) more than you would ordinarily for similar work to justify the risk premium.
  4. Equity. If you are working for a %age fee there is a tendency to identify strongly with the business it feels like you have a stake yet IT IS NOT YOUR BUSINESS. You are building someone else’s equity, if you
    are spending more time and energy working on, thinking about, and networking on behalf of their business than your own you have a problem. You are overextending – expect that to snap back sooner or later.

All of the above happened with my existing client and I find them taking up more and more of my time and attention (to the point where I have been neglecting prospecting for other work) and when I look closely the payments have actually been less than I would have charged out of regular fees never mind a premium for the risk I took. It looks like I’ll have little choice but to end the relationship despite the fact that I really like the client personally and think he has a great business with lots of potential.

If I agree success based fees in the future I intend to:

  1. Ask for a risk premium (and label it as such).
  2. Set clear boundaries on the amount of time I’m going to spend (I can always spend more if I have it but then revert to the stipulated time/tasks if my energy is needed elsewhere)
  3. Front load the payment i.e instead of say 20% of turnover, take 50% of the first 25% increase, 35% of the next 25% and then let it slid downward to say 10%. Obviously all of this depends on the amounts we are talking about and the margins of the business and it’ll vary wildly from case to case. Front load it so that any extra profit on the first chunk of the increase in turnover goes toward repaying the time I risked. This way I have covered myself before the other party starts rolling in it – much better for the health of the partnership in the longer term.
  4. Ensure that the agreement states I keep getting paid for a time after my involvement ends – there is an appreciable delay between doing online marketing work and seeing the rewards, this should be built in.

Its a tricky field to be operating in but I intend to keep doing so for a while yet as I enjoy helping a good business reach its potential.

The Internet & the Evolution of Humanity

The Internet has radically changed my world. Through it I have made friends, earned money, been entertained, shared knowledge and learned astonishing things.

As the Internet grows it becomes ever more powerful as a tool, and exponentially so – this is Metcalfe’s law: the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of users.

network_effectAs more people become connected and ever more services migrate to
the web and new tools (like wikis and blogs) are invented specifically
to use this new medium so it begins to exert more influence over every
aspect of people’s lives even those who have yet to hear of the Internet. Consider the following my friend Georg at Orgonise Africa learned about orgonite and cloudbusters via the Internet and he is using the Internet to fund placing
cloudbusters around South Africa. If Georg places a cloudbuster in a
remote region of the Karroo quite possibly some illiterate subsistence
farmers will benefit. The Internet changes everything.